We are likely to lose bets when basing them on illogical fallacies.įans are not the only people susceptible to the hot hand fallacy. Just because a team or player is performing unusually well for a short period does not counter their average statistics-but the hot hand fallacy makes us believe it does.
If we make a bet on a sports game based on a successful run in the first ten minutes, we are putting money down without considering all of the data. And once money becomes involved, these incorrect predictions can begin to have more serious consequences. While making incorrect predictions may not have negative consequences alone, people often place bets on these outcomes. The hot hand fallacy is most commonly discussed within the context of sports or gambling.
